Thursday, December 3, 2009

Q-2 results - GDP up by 7.9%.... Hold your champagne it might just be a bubble.. so be cautious with your optimism

As many investors across the world were afraid from the “Dubai Debacle” that occurred few days back, it didn’t affect much to the Indian corporates. On the other side talking about the uncertainty of the CAT Paper is more provoking as “IIMs” failed to live up to the expectation on world's standards. All along these ifs and buts came one news which brought cheers to many .Yes! India’s GDP growth was ahead of its expectation posted as 7.9%. Moreover it would be weird to know that this has created concern for the Indian government whether the Govt. should move forward with stimulus packages as planned for the economy or just stop pumping more money. The stimulus packages as designed by the govt. of India during hard times when the global economy was crippling with recession acted as relief to the whole business community. Stimulus packages were started from 7thdec 2008 when the 1st stimulus package of 300 million dollars was pumped into the economy. As per plans four stimulus packages were to be given to boost the Indian economy. The 2nd stimulus package later came on Feb. 2009 and the third one in April 2009 . Each time the stimulus package was released voices were echoing about the expenditure, however the explanation, understanding and the support shown by Indian Govt. in those situation was appreciable. GDP of 7.9% is still lower than the GDP growth shown by CHINA (8.9% in the 3rd quarter). There is nothing to be overexcited due to quarter results as it is a small proportion of the overall growth and due to bad monsoon the growth of the agriculture sector was merely around 0.9% (thank god at least its positive).The major contributor was the manufacturing sector which grew 11.9% well supported by the service sector.
There is another twist to all this figures if analyzed. There is a huge increase in the FDIs and FIIs, if we look back to 2008 we realize that one of the major cause of the black Monday was when Sensex showed the steepest fall with The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index (Sensex) crashed by 2062 points. According to estimates investors lost Rs 6 lakh 69 thousand 375 crore on a single day, termed as Black Monday by market experts.Also the same day FIIs and FDIs retrieved their huge amount of cash. Moving on the similar trend it’s noticeable that FII investment toward the real estate has jumped up by 430% in last couple of month which is alarming leading to the situation of overvaluation. Its astonishing to know that the FII and FDI investment has jumped from 635 crore on 30thNovember to 886 crore on 2nd dec. just couple of days after the announcement it has approximately icreased to 30%. As stimulus package still continue to flow in America the investors are able to get loan for interest just above 0% and will be able to earn huge returns on investment primarily in the developing countries like India, china , brazil and Russia. Even the "Global Investment Trends Monitor", or GITM released by FDI proves that.
RBI took an immediate step during the recession by decreasing lending interest rate by 425 basis points and additionally the stimulus packages very well supported the India economy. Any change could have hampered India’s growth, but due to bad monsoon and increased inflation whether the growth will be sustainable or not is what we should be looking into. As analysts across the world will keep an eye on this so will be the ANALYSTS from IGSM…. So keep reading ANALYSTS BLOG.....

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Raising the tax exemption limit- is it really worth doing?

"Soared prices,rocket like unwanted spendings and state of always having a penny less to buy something"-this is a brief description of situation in India in today's time where almost everyone in India wishes for a miracle to happen at least in economic terms.
Giving full consideration to this wish of indian citizens,a proposal of raising the tax exemption limit has been presented to the Indian Government by Industry body Assocham from Rs 1.6 lakh per annum to Rs 4 lakh per annum and to Rs 5 lakh per annum for senior citizens under Direct Taxes Code.Although,Assocham has suggested this way of removing the various deductions and exemptions but meanwhile,it has also urged the government to deduct 50% of the salary or Rs 2,40,000 whichever is less to compensate and lessen the additional tax burden.Now the question which may pop up in the minds of Indian citizens would be...Is this raised exemption limit really gonna help? or is it a just another mirage to fool the public?
Would like to know from you people too.If you have an answer or comment,we are here to listen and share it up.

Monday, November 30, 2009

IS " DUBAI DEBACLE" GOING ARGENTINA WAY.....

"DUBAI DEBACLE" The current financial crises has again raised numerous eyebrow across global financial exchanges.The global financial crisis was still a moolah and a matter of concern with most of the investors that the recent "dubai debacle" hit.Further major concern is whether the current situation will rise to the next biggest government default after one that happened in ARGENTINA in 2001.The tsunami of the "Dubai Debacle" hit when the US economy was celebrating THE THANKSGIVING DAY and counterparts in INDIA were enjoying the robust quarter results and the bullish nature of the stock bull however the "DUBAI WORLD" interrupted with the request for the "stand still" for its $59 billion debt. Dubai govt with an intention to create DUBAI as tourism hub went ahead with huge debts which in the bearish market became a tuff nut to crack specially due to the weakening of the dollar and low oil prices. The US and EUROPEAN economies are majorly affected and the investors are keeping there fingers crossed. The has been steep fall in 18 exchanges across europe except ICELAND.Similarly the confidance of the US Investors has shaken. In the ASIAN context the major economies have not been much effected however THAILAND is in concern as there is huge ITALIAN-THAI contruction joint ventures in DUBAI which will take a hit.The remmittances to INDIA is definatly a concern as there is a huge INDIAN labour force working in MIDDLE EAST which generated around $49 billion for INDIAN ECONOMY in FY-08.
As the WORLD ANALYSTS are keeping a watch on the current scenario so are the ANALYSTS fron IILM-GSM.We assure you that you would stay ahead..... so stay connected... the your own ANALYSTS BLOG

Friday, November 20, 2009

PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSTS (The Finance Club)

ANALYSTS... As the name suggests, it is a reputed Finance Club of IILM-GSM. The club aims to foster an environment among IGSM students that encourages continuous learning and discovery of recent trends and developments within the field of investment banking, M&A and corporate finance. Our scope is not limited to business or finance majors, as our club extends membership to all students interested in any aspect of finance.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

AN UNBROKEN PATH

Through ANALYSTS editorials we are able to put forward our views and various information. However over here its more about you. Your true critics will act as strong bricks for our base. Similarly a little appreciation will be high octane booster for us to move higher. We wish to be rational club where transparency and equality is of utmost importance...

Monday, October 26, 2009

BLOGSPOT

Club is a social network, its all about sharing and learning. The best thing about blogging is it is not just one way or two way communication but it's a multidimensional communication. It gives us a chance to express ourselves emphasizing the importance of knowing each other.Hence now we are on blogging where we wish to deliver information with a difference and similarly expect your coordination and support to make this journey an exhilarating experience